COMPUTE! The AI industry, overheard · Est. 2026
Fortnightly
horoscope

The AI-Lab Horoscope · №2

Six labs. One paragraph each. Earth signs hire. Fire signs leave. Anthropic is, as ever, an earth sign.

OpenAI. — Fire sign · The Revolving Door

Has, in twenty-four months, lost Murati to a competitor she founded with three of its own researchers; lost the boomerang autodidact twice; lost Schulman to a competitor of a competitor; rehired Zoph the same calendar day he was dismissed by Murati; and, separately, been told by its own CEO on his brother’s podcast that “none of [our] best people” took Meta’s offer. Holds, this issue, the inaugural Golden Boomerang (№ 2.01). Org chart, by Compute! count: a flipbook.

  • Hired: Zoph, Metz (returned)
  • Lost: Murati, Karpathy ×2, Schulman, Leike, Brooks
  • Avoid: goodbye parties

Anthropic. — Earth sign · The Quiet Hirer

Has, in twelve months, hired Leike, Schulman, Nordeen and Karpathy. Has not, for any of them, posted a smiling-team-photo. Valuation: $380bn. Mood: unbothered.

  • Hired: Karpathy, Nordeen, Schulman, Leike
  • Lost: none on record
  • Avoid: celebrating in public

Meta MSL. — Water sign · The Patron

Led by Meta’s bag-carrier, with Nat Friedman as a partner. Reportedly offered one engineer $1.5bn — and was turned down. Per the openly-sweatered Sam Altman: “none of [our] best people” took the offer. Per the openly-sweatered Sam Altman, two sentences later: Meta has “gotten a few great people.”

  • Hired: 7 from OpenAI · 2 from DeepMind · 1 from Anthropic · 1 from Sesame
  • Lost: the second sentence
  • Avoid: open-source pivots

xAI. — Fire sign · The Accelerationist

Founder lost a federal trial against the company he founded. Founding employee Ross Nordeen has departed for Anthropic. Valuation, last reported: $134bn.

  • Hired: pending
  • Lost: Nordeen, the trial
  • Avoid: sworn testimony

Google DeepMind. — Air sign · The Patient Buyer

Bought Cap’n Boomerang back for $2.7bn, three years after he quit over not being allowed to ship a chatbot. He now co-leads Gemini. Tim Brooks has also returned, this time on “world simulators.” Wins by waiting.

  • Hired: Shazeer ($2.7bn), Brooks
  • Lost: two researchers to Meta
  • Avoid: chatbot caution, in retrospect

Thinking Machines. — Air sign · The Sequel

Founded February 2025 by the founder-in-residence with ~30 hires from competitors. Seed round July 2025: $2bn at a $12bn valuation, pre-product. Lost co-founder Barret Zoph to OpenAI in January 2026 over reported “unethical conduct” (see Golden Boomerang, № 2.01). Still, at filing, has Schulman.

  • Hired: ~30 from OpenAI, Meta, Mistral
  • Lost: Zoph (same-day), Metz
  • Avoid: reading the room of a room you built