The AI-Lab Horoscope · №3

SpaceX (+xAI). — Fire AND Earth sign · The Trillion-Dollar Tinkerer’s Vehicle

Roadshow 4 June. Debut 12 June, on the Nasdaq, at $135 a share — a fixed price, no range. $1.77tn on $18.67bn of 2025 revenue and a $4.94bn net loss. The amended S-1 leaves the founder more than 82% of the vote. Seventh-largest company in America on day one — above Tesla, which is, awkwardly, also his. Awarded, by acclamation, the Elon Premium trophy (№3.03) — same trophy as last issue, and the issue before.

• Hired: every banker on Wall Street
• Lost: the distinction between “rocket company” and “AI company”
• Avoid: governance roadshows

OpenAI. — Fire sign · The Revolving Door, With A Form

Filed confidentially 8 June, with the statement “we have not decided on timing yet.” Holds the inaugural Schrödinger’s S-1 trophy (№3.01) for the most committed-uncommitted filing of the fortnight.

• Hired: the bankers, presumably
• Lost: ~7 pts of gross margin, 2025
• Avoid: questions about timing

Anthropic. — Earth sign · The Quiet Filer

Filed an S-1 confidentially on 1 June. Has committed $100bn to AWS over ten years, which is, in the spirit of the season, more than IBM books in cloud over the same period.

Databricks. — Earth sign · Cap’n Q3-of-Whenever

Reported on 9 June to be in talks for a new private round at $165–175bn, up from $134bn four months ago. Run-rate revenue ~$5.4bn (+65% YoY). Multi-cloud. Profitable in theory. The CEO has avoided committing to a firm IPO date; recent reporting points to 2027.

• Hired: enterprise customers
• Lost: nothing
• Avoid: committing

Anduril. — Fire sign · The Deferred Patriot

Raised $5bn at $61bn post in February, four months after $2.5bn at $30.5bn post. Revenue ~$2.2bn. Customers all wear the same uniform. Will, Compute! understands, file — though not, on present evidence, before the mid-terms. (№3.05.)

Cerebras. — Earth sign · The Wafer-Scale Punter

Per Forge: already done. Per Reuters: unconfirmed. Per Compute!: both.