The Class of '26, Ranked
By stated valuation · tiebreak by S-1 status · n=8
| # | Subject | Valuation | Tiebreak |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SpaceX (+xAI) — the trillion-dollar tinkerer · S-1 public, 20 May ‘26 | $1.77tn at $135, fixed | $4.94bn net loss; founder keeps 82%+ of the vote |
| 2 | Anthropic — the quiet filer · S-1 confidential, 1 Jun ‘26 | $965bn post; ~$1tn target | revenue undisclosed |
| 3 | OpenAI — the present-perfect filer · S-1 confidential, 8 Jun ‘26 | ”north of $100bn” | gross margin ≈ 33% |
| 4 | Databricks — Cap’n Q3-of-Whenever · still private; talking | $165–175bn (Jun ‘26 talk) | no firm IPO date; 2027 floated |
| 5 | Anduril — the deferred patriot · still private; Series H Feb ‘26 | $61bn post | customers all wear the same uniform |
| 6 | Scale AI — the partial exit · 49% sold to Meta, Jun ‘25 | ~$29bn implied | founder now wears two name tags |
| 7 | Groq — the inference upstart · still private | $6bn post | 2025 revenue forecast cut from $2bn+ to $500m |
| 8 | Hugging Face — the dormant unicorn · last raise Aug ‘23 | $4.5bn | nothing has happened in thirty-four months |
- Already Out: Cerebras · the wafer-scale punter · Nasdaq: CBRS · IPO reportedly priced 14 May 2026 at $56.4bn, raising $5.55bn — per Forge Global; not yet confirmed by Reuters at filing. The corkboard has been holding a yellow string for the position for three weeks. We should, eventually, like to take it down.